Throes of consolidation ready
Holford people from the wood on the market analysis to see the first half of 2008, timber market trends
First, the import of resources
? 08 in the first quarter of the country's timber imports fell 11.53%. 7.18% increase in imports of sawn timber
? changes in imports of logs region, Asia in 2007 than in 2004 decreased by 38% from the first down to third place. Africa in 2007 than in 2004 increased by 79%. Oceania in 2007 than in 2004 increased by 78%.
? less yuan appreciation, Russian log prices still rose 21.5%, log prices are mainly driven by the Russian log prices. April 2008 with the same period last year, 10% revaluation, net increase, hardwood log prices rose only 6.3%.
(According to statistics, January to May 2008, Zhangjiagang Port imported a total of 788 large round logs in bulk batches, 1.338 million m3, the value of $ 322.5 million, respectively, year on year decrease of 12.6%, 15.6%, 20.11%, showed a substantial decline .
Zhangjiagang Port in January 2008, 1-5 bulk import a large round timber logs to Oceania-based, total 676,300 cubic meters, an increase of 14.8%, of which 581,000 m3 timber Papua New Guinea, Solomon material 95,000 m3; African material is substantially down 41.8%, only 510,000 cubic meters, of which 433,000 cubic meters of logs Gabon, down 18.0%, Equatorial Guinea, 60,000 cubic meters of logs, down 71.7%, Cameroon 17 thousand cubic meters of logs, only 12.4% over the same period last year. . Lead to large round Zhangjiagang Port of bulk timber imports fall main reasons: First, the international timber country of origin of the log export restriction policies continue to crack, so that China's timber imports more difficult; the second is around Yangzhou, Taizhou, Zhangjiagang port and other ports on the diversion effects; third is due to sluggish domestic market, domestic demand, poor market sales, resulting in domestic processing and marketing enterprises to import logs are not enthusiastic.
? 2007, imports of lumber, the proportion of tropical timber squat down more than 04 years in 2007 dropped by 20 percentage points, indicating awareness of forest protection is gradually increased. January to April 2008, net of yuan appreciation, price increases of imports of sawn timber a negative 2.8%.
? changes in import lumber region, Asia in 2007 than in 2004 saw a decline of 37%, compared with 07 in North America grew 42% in 2004, Russia in 2007 than in 2004 increased 99%. In 2007 China imported timber (logs, sawn timber), Russia 60%, 12% Oceania, Asia accounted for 11%, Africa 6%, Europe 3%, 6% in North America, South America 2%.
Conclusion:
1, China has entered the forest area, accumulation of double growth, the domestic plantation resources will be more and more.
2, imported wood prices is not due to significant resource constraints, primarily the Russian people caused a substantial increase in floor vents
export tariffs. North American timber and tropical timber is not a substantial price increases, imports also decreased.
Second, exports of wood products
Exit doors of negative growth in the fourth quarter of 2007, 8.7%, veneer exports from January to February 2008 compared with 2007 fourth-quarter negative growth of 27.6%, fiber January-February 2008 than in 2007 fourth quarters of negative growth of 15.1%, plywood 08 1 07-April Exports 9.2% in the fourth quarter of negative growth.
Turning point in exports of wood products, the reason, the international recession in the U.S. economy, trade barriers, Vietnam, India and other lower-cost countries competing. Domestic policy, RMB appreciation (more than in July 2005 rose 18 per cent), raw materials, energy, labor and land prices and so on.
Third, the market performance
A timber market in 2008 the main characteristics of the market: market downturn, prices.
Reasons:
1, to accelerate the appreciation of the yuan, CPI index hit new high, the state has adopted a tight monetary policy to curb inflationary pressures, a slowdown in exports of wood products caused by a drop in demand, market setback.
2, the timber-producing countries of foreign policy of restricting log exports continue to stricter, more difficult to import, production of material to put on prices surge.
3, implicated in the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, global economy, oil prices at record highs, which are a substantial increase in costs.
A) The sheet metal market: the market this year, overall business conditions are not the smug, all varieties have a decline in sales situation, frequent market "upside down" phenomenon. Purchase volume increased slightly, but shipments began to decline slightly, following the regional board in the first half of the situation analysis for reference:
1, North American material: Although the RMB appreciation, import prices, however, by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, continued weakness in wood products market, the overall real estate slump, the current log prices in North America plummeted. The volume of domestic exports of furniture, shrink, resulting in frustration the first half of the North American timber market, the price decline. In addition to the price to see North American red oak wood furniture, the price level stabilized at about 4,000 yuan / M3, other varieties have different levels of price decline.
2, African wood: African wood in the first half as a whole appear more than the amount of slow-moving, several varieties of prices in all major decline. In particular the current market is about floor registers
80 percent of the African plate from Zhangjiagang timber processing, log in Zhangjiagang Africa are often too concentrated to the volume, price fluctuations, so the board selling prices largely influenced by the price of logs. The current African timber prices fell across the board, Sapele wood prices from a peak of 4,000 yuan / M3 fell to 3,000 yuan / M3, Okoume logs is the record low, the current price of 1400 yuan / M3. According to the analysis of business caused by these two species is mainly due to falling prices last year led to severe shortages due Sapele hot market, many businesses see profitable, blindly follow the trend, a large number of goods before purchase Source sufficient to induce lower prices. The Okoume plywood prices and domestic and international market downturn on. Another important reason is that this year, domestic furniture, wood products exports by the major environmental impact, shrinking exports, timber sales also will be frustrated, prices fell. With European markets such as Africa, Sapele wood on the reduced demand, the current local inventory more, some suppliers have begun to cut prices, the current sheet in the 9000-9200 import Sapele yuan / M3. African whitewood prices in the 5200-5500 yuan / M3. Asian pear as excess inventory, mahogany in the market economy, prices fell, some businesses have reported a "fire-sale, the current normal price of 3,500 yuan / M3.
3, Southeast Asia, timber: timber in Southeast Asia in the first half of the most important characteristic: most of the species "less prices go." Myanmar border to raise tariffs again, leading to further cost increases, European foreign ministers' meeting decided to impose economic sanctions on Myanmar and other international pressure, Myanmar began to strictly control the teak and other types of timber exports, which are stirring the domestic timber market in Myanmar, timber dealers and market, the affordability of consumers has been severely tested. Currently the price of teak furniture from class 10,000 yuan / M3 rose to 15,000 yuan / M3. Once by the "cold," the golden grapefruit recent sales and price to pick up, prices back to 5800 yuan / M3. Indonesia Merbau is progressively declining prices in the first half, the main part of the business and blindly follow the trend of a lot of stock on the market is now more popular as the golden yellow color, most in poor sales, the current price at 7,000 yuan / M3. Meranti prices and shipments in the first half with a more stable price stability in 3600-3800 dollars / M3.
4, European material: the euro and depreciation of the dollar, making European business material costs continue to rise, competitiveness, market to Romania and European wood species beech wood from Germany, Russia, ash, oak dominated. Point of view from Romania, although the amount of volume production of beech also good, but now, according to the business response to rising costs, the purchase is a price one day, while domestic sales rose sharply since last year's prices, the current no longer lifted profits is getting lower and lower. Germany has been producing high-quality beech wood, the price is relatively high, the price is now Germany and Romania beech beech produced almost the same, the relative advantage can, some businesses have also turned to consider the German beech or business. With the Russian government to continuously improve timber export tariffs, plate prices have also been some impact, prices have risen 50-100 per month, but since these varieties affordable furniture grade stable at around 4,000 yuan / M3, market demand is still more large prospects.
B) the wood market: wood market in the first half, "smoke and mirrors," people do not understand, there is a business described in Southeast Asia since last year, such as mahogany Price ride "roller coaster", especially those beginning to follow suit and much-needed cash in on the situation of the customer Only under the "flesh." The normal selling price, should be quoted in Cochin Dalbergia 3-6 million per / ton, and now there are reports of Cochin Dalbergia aniseed twenty thousand / ton below cost price. Drop a million a ton. Squid offer 2 million / ton, broad-leaved Dalbergia 1.4-1.6 million / ton. African mahogany only because of the East African black rosewood Mozambique exports of logs, and other species are able to export Specifications sheet, resulting in Zhangjiagang East African black rosewood, a large backlog, the price plunged 5,000 yuan / ton, gray skin, and so showed a slight African chicken wings down. Now is the off-season sales of timber trade, marketing and sales business in the test of patience and strength, this market is expected to be held following the September and October. Professionals that the current market ups and downs in mahogany, a crisis is also an opportunity, after all, is not, after all mahogany wood is non-renewable resources, have a high collection value, with the World Expo 2010 Shanghai business opportunities, have confidence, Currently only a matter of time. There are also some strength and much of the business has begun to see the "dips" stock, or adjust their product mix to a smooth through this small "storm", these measures can play a stabilizing role of the market.
C) the veneer market: purchase from a merchant can be seen in 2008 most of the dealers are more favorable for expensive high-end renovation veneer species, such as red shadow, white shadow, wood, a variety of pomegranate tree, tree branches. Flooring veneer is 2008 all operators of the key development projects. While the adverse environmental impact, but the veneer sales not be affected.
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